UK Climate – Sea Level Rise

The UKCP09 shows the most recent calculated projection based on existing data. As usual the big problems are 2 generations and more away!

So, something to not worry about now, lets get back to the banking crisis, unemployment, whose up for eviction on Big Brother!

But, it seems that each year these projections are released, they are invariably sooner and worse! Arctic ice was going to last the rest of the century, then it cam to 2030s then at least 20 years, then 2013 – that was last year (2008) But I wonder if we will see any real summer ice in 2010?

Sea level rise, again its going to be no more than a metre by 2100. But doesn’t that mean 1/2 metre by 2050? And that’s average sea level rises and most of that’s coming from the Greenland ice sheet melting!

Greenland, that’s not far away and for it to lead to a 1/2 metre global average increase, aren’t we assuming that the Greenland melt water is going to pretty quickly travel round the world and even out?

Add a bit of science here and avoid being simplistic – or even perhaps imagining the earth is flat. Its a sphere, in space and subject to its own gravity.

Why would a mass travel from its position at one side of the sphere to go to the other side when its already in equilibrium. The current mass (weight) of ice in Greenland, when melted will surely remain as close as possible to point of equilibrium. If a significant proportion were to somehow flow all the way round to the Pacific, the Earth’s centre of gravity would surely have to shift to compensate? After all this is a sphere subject to its own gravity!

That being the case, rather than this 1/2 meter increase by 2050 or 1 metre by 2100 being spread over the worlds oceans, won’t it be retained or spread out over the north Atlantic and Arctic oceans? Even were it to spread evenly round the globe, it would still have to flow through the Bering Straights – a fairly small gap, or take the long route via the Southern Capes, again a bit of a constriction before reaching the mass of the Pacific!

But I don’t see what science there is that makes a mass, even one that is liquid, flow out of equilibrium?

The North Atlantic and Arctic make up lets say 1/4 of the worlds Ocean surface. To my mind that means to keep our sphere in equilibrium, most of the sea level rise due to the melting of the Greenland ice caps will be remain in that region. A global average 1 metre will therefore mean we will see a local 4 metre sea level rise, perhaps significantly higher nearer to Greenland, after all, that is where the mass should remain in order to retain our world’s spherical shape without implying a marginal shift in the earth’s centre!

What with sea level just starting to make an impact and the prospect of relatively larger rises over the next decade. What would be a 10 cm average increase could of course be a 40 cm increase on the North European coastline. The North Eastern shore of the United States and Canada is a bit closer to Greenland.

The US fails in its Carbon Responsibilities

US Energy Secretary Steven Chu says the US will not be able to cut greenhouse emissions as much as it should due to domestic political opposition.

Basically, the worry is that if they do the minimum that is required, the public will object and turn away completely from any changes that are required to mitigate climate change. A bit like Neville Chamberlain and peace in our time, Climate Change is Czechoslovakia, that small uninteresting place far away.

Its just that by appeasing Hitler then we reaped the whirlwind.

By constantly putting off real action on Climate Change, there will be no whirlwind, more a perfect storm.  

Even where the USA is waking up to the need to make change, its only the big and manly projects they want to take on. When US policy advisers suggest that we would only need to put solar PV on just 5% of the worlds deserts, it shows how totally out of touch from reality they are. Meanwhile they miss the utterly outrageous waste of energy that goes on in the US. While we are adding a third or fourth layer of loft insulation, in the USA, most houses do not have insulation which is relevant both in the air conditioned South and the heated North!

If the USA were to take Climate Change seriously, surely they, as the remaining superpower has an real chance of  working towards a way of having a technical populous civilisation while preserving the climate that we know.

What about a Manhattan Project with Fusion power as the goal? Okay we have had JET and now ITER, but these are long drawn out projects that are more akin to basic research, Physicists playing! There is little desperation to take ideas through to the point where they are products.

JET at Culham was a project of the 1980s. That was 30 years ago! The Manhattan Project went from Nuclear energy as a theory to the bomb in 5 years, then little more than another 10 years to Britain’s 1st Nuclear power station!  

Perhaps we are too focused on Solar Energy?

Buying Solar Water Heating

An increasingly popular investment is in fitting solar panels for water heating. Not a new technology and one that is widely used on the continent. After insulation, the most likley to show an actual return on investment, certainly if you are on oil like me!

You will most likely have had a few letters from solar water heating companies through your door, perhaps from smartenergy, simple solar and a whole host of others. Beware! Unfortunately the industry has attracted the same people who 20 years ago were selling double glazing, 10 years ago it was timeshares and they have just moved out of selling dodgy finacial deals into solar panels! Call one of these guys and you are in for a few hours of sales patter, sign now and we will knock off 30% etc etc.. Its just that at £8,000 or £10,000 or £12,000 even with the extra special discount, its still a con!

A decent solar water heating system should cost no more than £4,000 and possibly less. It will only heat a proportion of your hot water, it will not heat the house. Mine, which I have had for about 4 years, allows me to switch off my boiler between May through till September. In late Autumn, Winter and eraly Spring there is minimal overall heat generated.

Paying to talk about Climate Change!

Our local free village newsletter ‘Lenham Focus’ advertised (it wasn’t their meeting, they had been asked to promote it) a climate change meeting. Promoted as a way to get people together, discuss what needed to be done, who should do it in a sort of open form.

What a good idea, having a Climate Change meeting to get going on taking it both seriously and locally, get some relevant local ideas and look at how we can educate and pursuade people, let alone positive local action to reduce our carbon footprint. I picked up the booking form from the library, but there’s something not mentioned in March’s Focus, it seems that if we want to contribute to the debate we have to pay up front!

Now I am used to paying for business seminars – which this rather looks like, after all there is usually a business reason, whether it is to comply with up coming laws or perhaps a smarter way of making money. However getting the community involved in considering Climate Change and its local impacts is surely something else entirely and needs free and open community access. I must express concern that what will come out of this meeting is ideas, potentially based on the vested interests of those who are able and willing to pay to attend, not of the wider community. Of equal concern is that this meeting might well be treated as a ‘focus group’ by KCC, the outcome being promoted as a local view from local people. Which it won’t be!

The whole matter of climate change is far to important to restrict entry to such a meeting. If I took my family, that would be £137.50! Ah, your thinking, this isn’t a family event – I would disagree, surely climate change is and all of us need to be involved! Even leaving the teenagers at home that’s still £55 for me and my wife.

As to my position on climate change? I certainly accept that it is happening now and will be felt progressively more as the years go by. It is not something that will wait to happen to our yet to be born descendents. The recent energy and food price rises are just a foretaste of far worse to come and notwithstanding the recent cold winter (the Atlantic Decadenal is perhaps to blame), the world is heating up! Who remembers daffodils in April? Can you still reliably plan ahead for the next bluebell walk?

What can we do? What would I suggest were I to pay £137.50 to attend with my very interested family?

Lets kick off with local information, buy an Infra Red camera, perhaps a local councillor can find some funding, perhaps get Swadelands involved, then do a survey of the properties in Lenham showing heat loss, put the images online. This would then be a free resource to show people where their homes and businesses were losing heat. What it would also do is get people involved and talking which is an excellent start! Next step is put some resources into insulating and work towards reducing people’s fuel bills.

And for all those who might think they can’t afford to insulate, have a look at – www.warmfront.co.uk

E.on and my OWL Energy Meter

My record of energy use over the last couple of years

My e.on account records my energy use on a month by month basis.   April is when I bought an OWL energy meter!

The energy use is generally low for my property as during the summer (mostly) I have solar PV. I have just installed Wind so next year should show a further month by month reduction.

Realistically, All we are doing with the OWL is using it as a reminder to go round switching things off at night. There is more to do, but I expect my consumption to go up again as I am looking at getting an Air Source Heat Pump. Certainly cheaper to run than the oil system I currently have.  That, along with triple glazing should mean that next year we are warm!

OWL’s website

My Wind Turbine – Lessons

1st wind turbine is up and I have assembled the second ready to install.

Lots of images here: http://picasaweb.google.co.uk/solarkent

The delay in installing No.2 is twofold, too much wind at the time I’m able and have able and willing helpers, and I ran out of cable! I’ve also gone through the installation with an electrical engineer asking for some hints, in particular with regard to the wiring. This has to last a good few years either on its current position or moved to an alternative pole(s).

Most important is where the supplied cable is exposed to the elements, the cable I am using that is supplied by Future Energy should be covered. Where it runs inside the scaffold pole this is fine and is clearly the correct cable, however on my installation I have it coming out of the pole at a joint about 10 foot up. Then it is strapped to the scaffold tower in the open before it reaches the container where the electrics live.

The revised plan is to install a junction box at the point where the cable leaves the scaffold pole and then run armoured cable from that point. This will be Tri-Rated cable with the plan being the equivalent of the 10mm Tri-Rated armoured cable that has been supplied.

Once all the bits are there, the rest is easy, but: Where to get the cable, what is the precise definition, outside junction box, glands etc. And not too expensive! I’ve got an Electrical Engineer giving me advice so that ultimately all will be correct and compliant with any electrical laws.

See my earlier blog when I installed  Wind Turbine No.1

Feed In Tariffs – More Government Hot Air

A Feed in Tariff is considered to be a special rate that is applied to electricity that is generated and or exported to the grid. ie If I generate 1unit, I am paid at a certain rate by somebody, usually my electricity supplier.

It was expected to be included in the April 2008 Budget, but Alistair Darling simply promised to investigate over the summer.  In October Milliband anounced he would be bringing in a Feed in Tariff, in November the new energy bill confirmed this, but no date, no detail, just a promise.

In Germany (Guardian: Germany sets shining example in providing a harvest for the world) there are Feed in Tariffs set by the state which is set at 4 times the market rate for electricity. This is not just for the amount exported to the grid, but for all energy generated!

By setting this beneficial rate, the amount of solar energy generated in Germany is  200 times greater than the UK. A decent payment totally transforms the economics of domestically generated renewable energy, the payback time then becomes realistic and it takes the installation and generation on from ‘trailblazers’ like me to the mainstream.

Would it make that much of a difference? Yes! With a return on investment of maybe 8% – 9%, it immediately makes sense to extend a mortgage or invest in renewables rather than saving! As to the impact to Britain’s commitment to 20% renewables by 2020, look at the rate of change of consumer goods, the spread of digital TV, or earlier the take up of satellite dishes.

Implementing Feed in Tariffs will make it practical to invest in the development and sale of more innovative microgeneration. Perhaps sterling engined heaters (Microgen).  Or cheap VAWTs (Vertical Axis Wind Turbines) for the domestic market.  These are the far more attracitive turbines that spin on a vertical axis. They are far more suited to chimney or wall mounting as the gyroscopic effect of their spinning will act to stabilise, while the traditional wind turbine places stress on the mountings, the more wind the more stress.

With Feed in Tariff’s the UK has a chance of developing a renewable energy economy.  Without? well all the statements from Govt etc are just hot air!

The Govt has now anounced (Nov 2008) that it intends to introduce Feed in Tariffs, but no timetable! I intend to do more excercise, eat better… a meaningless statement until it happens. What we have had from this Government is been nothing but promises and words. Also see:  Government urged to improve ‘feed in tariff’ scheme for renewable energy again from the Guardian, but sums it up well.

But do read the Guardian article mentioned above: it was written a year ago and still nothing has changed. Also see the FOE statement.

A suggestion. If it is so difficult to implement these Feed in Tariffs, why not simply start by stating that Microgenerated Electricity will be purchased at a rate the same as the highest tariff charged to the consumer! My exported electricity is paid for at about 8p by e.on but I pay about 30p each for the 1st 900 units! Then it dips to just over 9p.

Also please sign my petition http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/Feed-in-Tariffs/

Corporate Responsibility is not an option, it is a Business Imperative

The following is a press realease from the recent Corporate Responsibility Conference, Bentley Motors, Crewe on Friday 10 October 2008.

At last we are getting a real focus on business taking a lead on alternative energy, lets hope its British business as well as the Germans. Also that the movement to this form of corporate responisbility manifests itself with real activity, not cheating through buying carbon offsets!

With expert business analysts predicting that by 2030, more people in Germany will work in environmental technology than in the car or machine tool industries* and that the worldwide transition to energy efficient buildings will generate between 2 – 3.5 million green jobs in Europe and USA*, it was not surprising that The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) attracted a healthy audience for its North West Region Corporate Responsibility Conference, held at Bentley Motors Ltd in Crewe.

North West Regional Director for the ICAEW, Mark Hale, commented:

“We were delighted with the turn-out for the conference and the inter-action between presenters and delegates. Corporate responsibility is no longer being seen as an option, but as a business imperative. We knew it would be a topic which attracts strong views from all sides and, given chartered accountants work at heart of every business across all sectors throughout the region, we felt it was incumbent upon us to start addressing the concerns, the problems and the solutions.”

Tomorrow’s World presenter Maggie Philbin was the conference chair and opened the day with a short presentation which reflected her personal commitment, instilled as she explained by her parents’ values and approach to life, to reducing our impact on the environment.

The keynote speaker was Mark Goyder, founder director of business-led think–tank Tomorrow’s Company, and an award-winning speaker with 15 years manufacturing experience.

He described the groundbreaking business report by eleven CEOs of major businesses   “Tomorrow’s Global Company: challenges and choices” . Businesses needed to redefine success, embed values, and collaborate with others to create new frameworks which allowed competition that did not harm the environment.

He spoke about the global financial crisis and drew this lesson for corporate responsibility. “Successful businesses need to balance their focus on results with a focus on behaviour. Every time we forget this we destroy value y destroying the conditions needed to build trust – as happened with Enron.”

Other speakers offered both impassioned and practical insights – Les Richards from the Carbon Trust explained how money and energy saving went hand-in-hand, Sue Ratcliffe and Richard Leopold from Bentley outlined the company’s CR strategy, Phil McVan from True Energy showed examples of successful renewable energy project

After lunch delegates heard from Robert Epstein (Microsoft) and Adam Hart from O2. The day ended with a Q&A panel session chaired by Maggie Philbin.

ICAEW North West Region would like to thank Bentley Motors Ltd and sponsors O2, Microsoft and financial recruitment firm Greenwood Gleeson.

The Institute’s new Business Sustainability e-learning programme (BSP) aims to raise awareness of the business case for Corporate Responsibility and the issues which face companies in becoming sustainable. For details visit www.icaew.com/businesssustainability

text provided by True Energy Ltd

New Wind Turbine Installed!

Assembling the turbine

Wind Turbine Controllers

Crimping the turbine cable onto the main cable

Feeding the cable through the brackets

The Joint Bracket

My New Turbine

Over the weekend I installed my 1st wind turbine and its hardly stopped spinning with the little orange flashing light that says its charging, flashing away!

Wednesday saw the parts arrive, the aim is to have two wind turbines mounted on scaffold poles which in turn are braced to a scaffold tower that sits on 4 concrete pads, the tower is tied down by 6mm steel braid. The tower has been up for some time, its even on Google earth, to see if there were any complaints – in fact I don’t think anybody can see it.

Wednesday and Thursday were spent assembling the 1st turbine and setting up the electronics. The electronics were to sit in an outside weather proof unit next to the tower. The simplest weather proof box turned out to be a garden tool box from Wickes, the electronics fitted in perfectly and the box sits bolted down to a concrete plinth.

Saturday, a day of no wind, was spent getting everything ready for the installation of the turbine.

Installing the turbine.

After assembling the turbine, this was bolted to a 10 foot scaffold pole which we were going to raise as a whole unit so the pole in turn sat on top of another scaffold pole making a single pole some 20 or so foot high.

Scaffold poles are not light, the more so with a wind turbine on top! I had set up the installation so that apart from the point where we stood the 1st pole (with turbine) vertical, everything was sufficiently braced that it could all be let go and wouldn’t fall on anybody. Helpers were warned that their fingers were more important than getting things fitted quickly.

With pole resting on the side of the tower, Geoff pushing from below, me pulling from the top and Dominic feeding cables, we raised the pole and turbine up into position so that it could slot into the bracket making a single long pole with turbine on top.

With the wind now picking up the race was on to attach the turbine cable to the electronics, the intructions said that it mustn’t run without a load! Fortunately I won the race, though I will have to tidy up the cables once the wind drops!

So, from Sunday the 20th, my carbon footprint has gone down a tiny bit more, and once the second turbine is up I’ll be close to carbon neutral on electricity!

The wind turbines are from Future Energy, the build quality seemed to be excellent and all went together very easily.  What is worth really emphasising is that though the turbine comes in a manageble and not too heavy pair of boxes, once it is assembled it is heavy and awkward. Then when it is on the pole ready for installation it is big, unwieldy and even heavier. It is vital to think safety first at all times, keep the kids away and think of ways that even if everybody lets go, it doesn’t come crashing down!

And its Windy

The perfectly still day started to get blustery as the turbine was raised, we got it up and wired in just as the breeze turned into wind with a bit of energy behind it and its been breezy, windy and blustery ever since! The turbine has been spinning and away from the property boundary, not a sound, even downwind! But I will have to deal with a few rattles from the scaffold tower

Next Step

Installing turbine Number two on the diagonally opposite point of the tower

The EU is Bottling out of its CO2 Reduction Commitment!

The EU is about to anounce that half of the commitment to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020 can be made up with carbon offsets!

Shame on the EU and its constituant governments, all those fine words devoted to showing how committed they were to the environment and the future of the planet, our children’s future seem to be for nothing!

It seems that rather than have a policy that states “We will have a 20% cut in Emissions by 2020″ What they are now going to say is “We are going to give some money to some 3rd world country and ask them to promise not to emit too much CO2″. Then all we have to do is cut emissions by 10%, which is an easier number to lie about and then claim its 20% becuase we think our voters are stupid enough to believe us!

So, rather than actually doing what they had committed to, they are going to set up some administrative smoke and mirrors where they can claim to have cut emissions while feeding our taxpayers money to some tin pot corrupt dictator.

Shame on the lot of them!

From the bbc “Stavros Dimas told BBC News that governments should be able to achieve more than half of their target carbon cuts by paying developing countries to invest in clean energy projects on their behalf.”

Can you imagine the likes of Churchill in 1940 saying, “well, its a bit awkward fighting the Nazi’s at the moment, we’ll promise not to fight them for a bit, if they do likewise.”   And then returning with a piece of paper?

We need brave peope leading us, not this gutless rabble!

See: My comments on Carbon Offsetting – bbc Money Box

Report on corruption within the UN’s Carbon Offsetting programme

Is Your Couch a Carbon Offset?