Shock Horror, Govt Scientist has revelation!

I am not the only blogger who has commented that when estimating our carbon emmissions we must take into account emmissions that have been generated overseas in manufacturing products that we use.

Go back a few years and the consumer durable that you bought, a TV, computer, clothes etc was almost certainly made in the UK. That TV caused a certain volume of emmissions, both carbon and other pollutants. Now the TV is made in another country, we seem to think the emmissions don’t count!!

CO2, methane or any greenhouse gas along with most pollutants don’t obey national boundaries, it is a global problem!

Briton has a long way to go to get to an 80% (by 2050) or even a 20% reduction by 2020.  Unless Govt start to take it seriously – like when the Nazis were going to invade -  we will fail.

I note that the recent speech by Gordon Brown didn’t mention Climate Change, realistically the only thing of any importance for the next 50 years, and that just days after another relevant science report says we should expect 4 degrees of warming perhaps by 2060 – I’ll be 103!

Why is the UK public more ‘climate sceptical’ than the rest of Europe

On one of the bbc blogs there was a quote “In general, the UK public is more ‘climate sceptical’ than the rest of Europe.”

Surely that’s because our “weather” is more evident than our climate.

On the continent they have “climate” of which their weather is a subset. In the UK we have weather, in summer it could be hot, cold, windy, wet, foggy, in extreme cases it might hail or even snow! In Italy in summer it is hot and sunny, it is hotter now than 10 years ago. In the Alps it used to be invariably very cold and snowy. Increasingly it is not so cold and not so snowy.

This trend is just not experienced in the UK unless you are interested, look hard and perhaps live in the country. Less snow isn’t a clue, but Swallows arriving early means Africa is hotter earlier. Bluebell walks increasingly seeing the flowers on their way out rather than in full bloom and Daffodils now blooming in late February !!!

Look deeper and we see fish stocks moving north, non native species appearing in our southern seas round Cornwall and Dorset, even up to Hampshire, Kent  and the Thames Estuary. Other effects are the real sea level rise, hidden to the casual observer due to wind, waves and tides but for the local, that 2 or 3 centimetres of sea level rise is a clear indication of change.

With the majority of people living in cities, in a largely artificial environment all of this just isn’t seen. How many Londoners know the frequency of the Thames Barrier being raised?

Going back to the title and the implications. If there is a strong public feeling that Climate Change is not real, the pressure on our Government to do something is slackened. Climate Change, unlike war doesn’t have  a fixed date of declaration, a point in time from which we can all work together.

Climate Change will keep happening and speeding up, perhaps it will take the destruction of a city to wake us all up to that fact? Perhaps not,. New Orleans was devastated, bad luck and an off course Hurricane was blamed. Perhaps when the Thames Barrier is overtopped the general feeling will be it was just a combination of weather events, no more than a perfect storm!

Continued Decline – In consumption!

My electricity consumption continues to go down!

My Energy Tracker

The earlier decline in energy consumption is largely due to general conservation measures, switching off lights and not using standby. The red realistically shows no change and fits in with the trend from last year, our extra effort in energy saving having started in April 2008.

With what appeared to be a limited impact on our net energy consumption by our wind turbines I approached FutureEnergy who very kindly called in and made some changes to settings. The mains electricity here is 250 and more volts, far from the European target of 230! Their visit was in late June and we appear to be showing an immediate 20% electricity saving from our Turbines and its during the summer when there is far less wind!

Ongoing changes are replacing failed light bulbs with LED lights (not CFLs). My bathroom will have 9 LEDs with a total consumption of about 11 Watts!

Overall a target of more than 10% by 2010, having had a 20% reduction in 2009 and similar in 2008.

See: Guardian article on Politicians plans to reduce consumption. You would think they would be leading, it all seems to be political hot air!

UK Climate – Sea Level Rise

The UKCP09 shows the most recent calculated projection based on existing data. As usual the big problems are 2 generations and more away!

So, something to not worry about now, lets get back to the banking crisis, unemployment, whose up for eviction on Big Brother!

But, it seems that each year these projections are released, they are invariably sooner and worse! Arctic ice was going to last the rest of the century, then it cam to 2030s then at least 20 years, then 2013 – that was last year (2008) But I wonder if we will see any real summer ice in 2010?

Sea level rise, again its going to be no more than a metre by 2100. But doesn’t that mean 1/2 metre by 2050? And that’s average sea level rises and most of that’s coming from the Greenland ice sheet melting!

Greenland, that’s not far away and for it to lead to a 1/2 metre global average increase, aren’t we assuming that the Greenland melt water is going to pretty quickly travel round the world and even out?

Add a bit of science here and avoid being simplistic – or even perhaps imagining the earth is flat. Its a sphere, in space and subject to its own gravity.

Why would a mass travel from its position at one side of the sphere to go to the other side when its already in equilibrium. The current mass (weight) of ice in Greenland, when melted will surely remain as close as possible to point of equilibrium. If a significant proportion were to somehow flow all the way round to the Pacific, the Earth’s centre of gravity would surely have to shift to compensate? After all this is a sphere subject to its own gravity!

That being the case, rather than this 1/2 meter increase by 2050 or 1 metre by 2100 being spread over the worlds oceans, won’t it be retained or spread out over the north Atlantic and Arctic oceans? Even were it to spread evenly round the globe, it would still have to flow through the Bering Straights – a fairly small gap, or take the long route via the Southern Capes, again a bit of a constriction before reaching the mass of the Pacific!

But I don’t see what science there is that makes a mass, even one that is liquid, flow out of equilibrium?

The North Atlantic and Arctic make up lets say 1/4 of the worlds Ocean surface. To my mind that means to keep our sphere in equilibrium, most of the sea level rise due to the melting of the Greenland ice caps will be remain in that region. A global average 1 metre will therefore mean we will see a local 4 metre sea level rise, perhaps significantly higher nearer to Greenland, after all, that is where the mass should remain in order to retain our world’s spherical shape without implying a marginal shift in the earth’s centre!

What with sea level just starting to make an impact and the prospect of relatively larger rises over the next decade. What would be a 10 cm average increase could of course be a 40 cm increase on the North European coastline. The North Eastern shore of the United States and Canada is a bit closer to Greenland.

The US fails in its Carbon Responsibilities

US Energy Secretary Steven Chu says the US will not be able to cut greenhouse emissions as much as it should due to domestic political opposition.

Basically, the worry is that if they do the minimum that is required, the public will object and turn away completely from any changes that are required to mitigate climate change. A bit like Neville Chamberlain and peace in our time, Climate Change is Czechoslovakia, that small uninteresting place far away.

Its just that by appeasing Hitler then we reaped the whirlwind.

By constantly putting off real action on Climate Change, there will be no whirlwind, more a perfect storm.  

Even where the USA is waking up to the need to make change, its only the big and manly projects they want to take on. When US policy advisers suggest that we would only need to put solar PV on just 5% of the worlds deserts, it shows how totally out of touch from reality they are. Meanwhile they miss the utterly outrageous waste of energy that goes on in the US. While we are adding a third or fourth layer of loft insulation, in the USA, most houses do not have insulation which is relevant both in the air conditioned South and the heated North!

If the USA were to take Climate Change seriously, surely they, as the remaining superpower has an real chance of  working towards a way of having a technical populous civilisation while preserving the climate that we know.

What about a Manhattan Project with Fusion power as the goal? Okay we have had JET and now ITER, but these are long drawn out projects that are more akin to basic research, Physicists playing! There is little desperation to take ideas through to the point where they are products.

JET at Culham was a project of the 1980s. That was 30 years ago! The Manhattan Project went from Nuclear energy as a theory to the bomb in 5 years, then little more than another 10 years to Britain’s 1st Nuclear power station!  

Perhaps we are too focused on Solar Energy?

Buying Solar Water Heating

An increasingly popular investment is in fitting solar panels for water heating. Not a new technology and one that is widely used on the continent. After insulation, the most likley to show an actual return on investment, certainly if you are on oil like me!

You will most likely have had a few letters from solar water heating companies through your door, perhaps from smartenergy, simple solar and a whole host of others. Beware! Unfortunately the industry has attracted the same people who 20 years ago were selling double glazing, 10 years ago it was timeshares and they have just moved out of selling dodgy finacial deals into solar panels! Call one of these guys and you are in for a few hours of sales patter, sign now and we will knock off 30% etc etc.. Its just that at £8,000 or £10,000 or £12,000 even with the extra special discount, its still a con!

A decent solar water heating system should cost no more than £4,000 and possibly less. It will only heat a proportion of your hot water, it will not heat the house. Mine, which I have had for about 4 years, allows me to switch off my boiler between May through till September. In late Autumn, Winter and eraly Spring there is minimal overall heat generated.

Paying to talk about Climate Change!

Our local free village newsletter ‘Lenham Focus’ advertised (it wasn’t their meeting, they had been asked to promote it) a climate change meeting. Promoted as a way to get people together, discuss what needed to be done, who should do it in a sort of open form.

What a good idea, having a Climate Change meeting to get going on taking it both seriously and locally, get some relevant local ideas and look at how we can educate and pursuade people, let alone positive local action to reduce our carbon footprint. I picked up the booking form from the library, but there’s something not mentioned in March’s Focus, it seems that if we want to contribute to the debate we have to pay up front!

Now I am used to paying for business seminars – which this rather looks like, after all there is usually a business reason, whether it is to comply with up coming laws or perhaps a smarter way of making money. However getting the community involved in considering Climate Change and its local impacts is surely something else entirely and needs free and open community access. I must express concern that what will come out of this meeting is ideas, potentially based on the vested interests of those who are able and willing to pay to attend, not of the wider community. Of equal concern is that this meeting might well be treated as a ‘focus group’ by KCC, the outcome being promoted as a local view from local people. Which it won’t be!

The whole matter of climate change is far to important to restrict entry to such a meeting. If I took my family, that would be £137.50! Ah, your thinking, this isn’t a family event – I would disagree, surely climate change is and all of us need to be involved! Even leaving the teenagers at home that’s still £55 for me and my wife.

As to my position on climate change? I certainly accept that it is happening now and will be felt progressively more as the years go by. It is not something that will wait to happen to our yet to be born descendents. The recent energy and food price rises are just a foretaste of far worse to come and notwithstanding the recent cold winter (the Atlantic Decadenal is perhaps to blame), the world is heating up! Who remembers daffodils in April? Can you still reliably plan ahead for the next bluebell walk?

What can we do? What would I suggest were I to pay £137.50 to attend with my very interested family?

Lets kick off with local information, buy an Infra Red camera, perhaps a local councillor can find some funding, perhaps get Swadelands involved, then do a survey of the properties in Lenham showing heat loss, put the images online. This would then be a free resource to show people where their homes and businesses were losing heat. What it would also do is get people involved and talking which is an excellent start! Next step is put some resources into insulating and work towards reducing people’s fuel bills.

And for all those who might think they can’t afford to insulate, have a look at – www.warmfront.co.uk

E.on and my OWL Energy Meter

My record of energy use over the last couple of years

My e.on account records my energy use on a month by month basis.   April is when I bought an OWL energy meter!

The energy use is generally low for my property as during the summer (mostly) I have solar PV. I have just installed Wind so next year should show a further month by month reduction.

Realistically, All we are doing with the OWL is using it as a reminder to go round switching things off at night. There is more to do, but I expect my consumption to go up again as I am looking at getting an Air Source Heat Pump. Certainly cheaper to run than the oil system I currently have.  That, along with triple glazing should mean that next year we are warm!

OWL’s website

My Wind Turbine – Lessons

1st wind turbine is up and I have assembled the second ready to install.

Lots of images here: http://picasaweb.google.co.uk/solarkent

The delay in installing No.2 is twofold, too much wind at the time I’m able and have able and willing helpers, and I ran out of cable! I’ve also gone through the installation with an electrical engineer asking for some hints, in particular with regard to the wiring. This has to last a good few years either on its current position or moved to an alternative pole(s).

Most important is where the supplied cable is exposed to the elements, the cable I am using that is supplied by Future Energy should be covered. Where it runs inside the scaffold pole this is fine and is clearly the correct cable, however on my installation I have it coming out of the pole at a joint about 10 foot up. Then it is strapped to the scaffold tower in the open before it reaches the container where the electrics live.

The revised plan is to install a junction box at the point where the cable leaves the scaffold pole and then run armoured cable from that point. This will be Tri-Rated cable with the plan being the equivalent of the 10mm Tri-Rated armoured cable that has been supplied.

Once all the bits are there, the rest is easy, but: Where to get the cable, what is the precise definition, outside junction box, glands etc. And not too expensive! I’ve got an Electrical Engineer giving me advice so that ultimately all will be correct and compliant with any electrical laws.

See my earlier blog when I installed  Wind Turbine No.1

Feed In Tariffs – More Government Hot Air

A Feed in Tariff is considered to be a special rate that is applied to electricity that is generated and or exported to the grid. ie If I generate 1unit, I am paid at a certain rate by somebody, usually my electricity supplier.

It was expected to be included in the April 2008 Budget, but Alistair Darling simply promised to investigate over the summer.  In October Milliband anounced he would be bringing in a Feed in Tariff, in November the new energy bill confirmed this, but no date, no detail, just a promise.

In Germany (Guardian: Germany sets shining example in providing a harvest for the world) there are Feed in Tariffs set by the state which is set at 4 times the market rate for electricity. This is not just for the amount exported to the grid, but for all energy generated!

By setting this beneficial rate, the amount of solar energy generated in Germany is  200 times greater than the UK. A decent payment totally transforms the economics of domestically generated renewable energy, the payback time then becomes realistic and it takes the installation and generation on from ‘trailblazers’ like me to the mainstream.

Would it make that much of a difference? Yes! With a return on investment of maybe 8% – 9%, it immediately makes sense to extend a mortgage or invest in renewables rather than saving! As to the impact to Britain’s commitment to 20% renewables by 2020, look at the rate of change of consumer goods, the spread of digital TV, or earlier the take up of satellite dishes.

Implementing Feed in Tariffs will make it practical to invest in the development and sale of more innovative microgeneration. Perhaps sterling engined heaters (Microgen).  Or cheap VAWTs (Vertical Axis Wind Turbines) for the domestic market.  These are the far more attracitive turbines that spin on a vertical axis. They are far more suited to chimney or wall mounting as the gyroscopic effect of their spinning will act to stabilise, while the traditional wind turbine places stress on the mountings, the more wind the more stress.

With Feed in Tariff’s the UK has a chance of developing a renewable energy economy.  Without? well all the statements from Govt etc are just hot air!

The Govt has now anounced (Nov 2008) that it intends to introduce Feed in Tariffs, but no timetable! I intend to do more excercise, eat better… a meaningless statement until it happens. What we have had from this Government is been nothing but promises and words. Also see:  Government urged to improve ‘feed in tariff’ scheme for renewable energy again from the Guardian, but sums it up well.

But do read the Guardian article mentioned above: it was written a year ago and still nothing has changed. Also see the FOE statement.

A suggestion. If it is so difficult to implement these Feed in Tariffs, why not simply start by stating that Microgenerated Electricity will be purchased at a rate the same as the highest tariff charged to the consumer! My exported electricity is paid for at about 8p by e.on but I pay about 30p each for the 1st 900 units! Then it dips to just over 9p.

Also please sign my petition http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/Feed-in-Tariffs/